SmokeJumping Blog

New Blog . . . moved to smokejumping.wordpress.com

2009-06-06T22:55:00.000-07:00

I have moved my blog to www.smokejumping.wordpress.com . . . see you there!

Banana Canada Republic

2008-12-04T17:05:00.000-08:00

True, North, Strong & Bananas.

That's right, my homeland appears to be acting like a banana republic with abuses of democracy running rampant. Well technically it is not a republic, rather being loyal to the parliamentary system of government, which is (part of the) why chaos runs rampant through the land to our north.

Let me attempt to break down the issues at hand:

Canada elected a minority Conservative government in October.
The opposition parties, consisting of the Liberals (Moderates), New Democratic Party / NDP (Socialists) and Bloc Quebecois (Separatists) objected to the perceived lack of economic stimulus in a statement made by the Conservatives. (Apparently the Canadian economy is not immune to the toilet bowl swirl of the US market, although there are some differences: a viable banking sector, no real estate market collapse, record airline transportation rates, low government deficits . . . but I digress).
Many claim the real reason, in addition to pure politics, is that the Conservatives are planning to eliminate public funding of political parties (which is something I'm against - despite what Obama was able to accomplish here without public financing).
The unholy alliance of Liberals, Socialists and Separatists . . . oh my. . . (where's a good Green Party Member of Parliament when you could use one?) have signed a pact to vote down the government and asked the Governor General (my friend Bucky claims "she's hot" but he drank a lot of beer in his youth) to allow them to form the next government. Yes, in Canada they still have to ask a figurehead representative of the Queen (of England that is) permission to rule the land (and use the potty).
In response the Conservatives have asked the Governor General to delay the opening of parliament until late January. As of today, it appears she has decided that not allowing anyone to legislate or debate in a legitimate forum is the right course of action for Canada.

So what have we learned from this quick look into the Canadian political landscape?

Why bother having elections?
Why have a legislative body, if it doesn't meet?
When facing dire economic prospects, the best thing to do is to politic and get nothing accomplished.
Thank goodness the Queen can still rule over the land - "God save her" and all that - without getting on an aeroplane or steamship.
Why does a separatist party elect members to national institution that its prime purpose in life is to undo?
When leading a revolution (or at least a rag tag coalition), rather than having a dynamic leader that captivates all, it is best to be lead by the equivalent of a meek and bumbling 3rd grade math teacher (see Ste phane Dion who, by the way, is planning on stepping down from his leadership post in March, 2009).
Canadians are getting no change they can't believe in.

Canada suffering from erectile dysfunction

See John Stewart's now prophetic summary of the lamo cast of Canadian politicians who are playing out this drama . . . . ironically not available in Canada, pity.

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Canuck the Vote

Barack Obama Interview
John McCain Interview

Sarah Palin Video
Funny Election Video

What I'm Drinking on Thanksgiving.

2008-11-27T13:50:00.000-08:00

Here is my guest blog post on The Savvy Sommelier . . . .

"It's time for the obligatory blog post about wine to pair with your Thanksgiving feast. But alas it is Thanksgiving eve, the short week has slipped away, you've probably bought your wine already and the real Savvy Sommelier has gone out with the girls.

So now that this lowly spouse has grabbed the reigns of this blog, what could I possibly add to the conversation?" Read on . . . .

Veoh Dumping Veoh TV

2008-11-22T20:02:00.000-08:00

After recently launching a new web-based video player, Veoh is abandoning support for VeohTV. The Veoh Web Player allows you to watch videos of any length in your browser. Previously, on Veoh, any video of more than 30 minutes had to be viewed in VeohTV (which was a hassle for many users).

The Veoh Web Player still involves a download but offers benefits such as being able to view download videos at a time when you are not connected to the Internet.

For more information and download of the Veoh Web Player . . . .

Cable 2.0 Is (Finally) Upon Us

2008-11-20T14:46:00.000-08:00

Interesting coverage out the SJ Mercury News today about web video developing into a viable alternative to cable tv. This is very much in line with my post early last month "Why I'll leave cable t.v. behind . . . ."

With the entry of Sling, joining other sites such as Hulu, Joost, Veoh and others, most of what is available on cable is now available on the web. Now I can watch my favorite shows: The Office, Prison Break, Law & Order, Brothers & Sisters, ER, House, The Daily Show and Colbert Report . . . when I want.

The only major hurdle is that I can't easily watch them on my TV. And watching on the 13" screen of my MacBook after I've been on it all day is not joyful. Worse is attempting to watch on my iPhone. That will change and when it does I won't miss cable.

Election Prediction: Obama Wins (364)

2008-11-04T08:33:00.000-08:00

Obama/Biden 364
McCain/Palin 174

As of 8:30am PDT, my prediction is that Barack Obama will win the election this evening to make U.S. Presidential history.

I have been following the ups and downs of both candidates in the polls for months via Slate's Poll Tracker '08 application on my iPhone. Rather than looking at polls that calculate popularity of the candidates on a national level, Poll Tracker takes the latest poll in each state and makes a estimate of electoral college votes. This, in the end, is how the President is elected after all.

Each state and their electoral college votes are placed into one of three categories: safe, lean and tossup.

Here's how the numbers breakdown and how I ended up with the prediction that Obama will win:

Obama has 273 electoral college votes that are considered "safe" and another 18 (Virginia and Nevada) that are "leaning" his way. This totals 291. Only 270 are needed to win.
Conversely McCain has 129 "safe" votes and "12" lean (Arizona and South Dakota); giving him 142 votes.
105 electoral college votes are considered "tossups"

Of the 105 "tossup" states, using the latest poll numbers in each state, I predict the following:

Obama wins: Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Missouri (adding an additional 73 electoral college votes to Obama)
McCain wins: North Dakota, Montana, Georgia and Indiana (adding an additional 32 electoral college votes to McCain)

So if the "tossup" states fall as predicted above the final election tally will be:

Obama/Biden 364
McCain/Palin 174

Obama will win handily. Let the voting begin and (all) votes be counted!

Look Important With FakeCalls

2008-11-03T11:47:00.000-08:00

I first traveled to Brazil some 13 years ago on a business study trip. At that time the Brazilian cellular industry was taking off. We observed a couple of the interesting dynamics that contrasted the Brazilian experience with that of North America. One was that people were bypassing landlines altogether, rather investing in a cellular phone as their only and exclusive phone number. Two, for people who couldn't afford an actual cellular phone, they could purchase a "virtual" number which provided them a phone number and voice mail. The voice mail could be accessed via a pay phone and presumably any message could be returned via this manner as well. In effect, this represented a low-cost, virtual answering service. (I don't expect this type of service exists much anymore).

The most interesting service we learned about at this time was a service that would call you on your cell phone at a pre-arranged time. It was a way for Brazilians who could afford a cell phone back then to look important in front of friends, business colleagues and dates. Nothing like having to interrupt an in-person conversation to take a very important call. Of course there was no one on the other line.

With the prevalence of cellular phones in much of the world today, the last thing most people need is their cell phone to ring in order to impress. (Often, it has the opposite effect). However there are times when you'd like to extract yourself from an awkward situation. That's were FakeCalls app for the iPhone comes in. It mimics the phone call receiving process on the iPhone. Load up the app, set the time you'd like to receive a call and after that amount of time passes . . . voila, your phone starts ringing and vibrating indicating an incoming call. See VentureBeat's coverage of FakeCalls.

Best way to get out of mind-numbing business meetings, family dinners or blind dates that have gone awry!

Monetization of Online Video

2008-11-03T09:07:00.000-08:00

News covered by TechCruch that MySpace has implemented a system that allows them to automatically identify any uploaded video clip from shows produced by MTV. The ad platform, called Auditude, displays an overlay at the bottom of the screen when a clip is played. This identifies which episode the clip originally came from, air-date and links to where users can buy the entire episode. Read coverage . . .

More analysis from James McQuivey . . . he anticipates as more networks sign on with MySpace this will become standard practice.

Online Video Compared to Nascent TV Market

2008-10-17T14:48:00.001-07:00

TechCrunch recently covered Chad Hurley, founder of YouTube, and his keynote address "A Brave New World - The Future of Managing Content" at MIPCOM conference in Cannes, France.

Here is an interview immediately prior his keynote.

In his keynote, he likens the current state of online video and advertising around it akin to the dynamics affecting the TV industry in the early 1940's:

A small group of innovators introduced a new technology that has the ability to entertain and engage people on a massive scale
Advertisers are reluctant to risk money on this untested platform
Content owners are fearful of alienating their existing audiences and distribution partners
[Some] experts hail this new platform as signaling the demise of another (e.g. radio)

He then goes onto to debunk the current value of a centralized distribution model in today's world. This is evidenced by today's consumers who want access to content on PCs, TVs, mobile phones and social networking pages.

None of this is particularly new or earth-shattering as I have discussed recently. Chad makes reference to the recent study Forrester completed for Veoh Networks looking at how online video engages. In reaction to that study a number of major network executives agreed that online video was adding to their viewership, rather than cannibalizing it.

However, Hurley puts forward an interestingly broad perspective on the dynamics in the video and content market and appears to make a universal call to throw off the cold war-like vestiges of "old media" vs. "new media" and rather look at it as "one media" with a common purpose: "to inform, move and inspire the world through information, art and entertainment."

Kumbaya.

Online Viewers More Engaged

2008-10-10T13:00:00.000-07:00

Friday media coverage round-up related to my recent post on Forrester Research report on How Online Video Engages Consumers:

eMarketer: Online Video Viewer Demographics: Who watches the most online video?
New York Times / GigaOM: Research: Engaged Viewers and Male Behavior
WebProNews: Online Video Viewers More Engaged: More Than With TV
TVWeek: Study: Online Viewers More Engaged
Washington Post / paidContent.org: Studies Aim to Show How Well Online Ads Work and How?
Veoh Networks Press Release: Study Reveals That Engaged Long-Form Online Video Viewers Are Highly Receptive to Advertising

Eisner Takes Shots @ Hulu & MySpace

2008-10-10T12:25:00.000-07:00

I previously posted about a Veoh Networks event where Forrester unveiled research on How Online Video Engages Consumers. At that same event, Michael Eisner "headlined" in an interview. Yes, the Michael Eisner, former head of Disney, and current head of The Tornante Company which owns digital studio Vuguru - producer of web originals Prom Queen and Foreign Body.

Here's some of what he had to say and my response (in italics):

Hulu may not represent the future of online video. (Agreed but they have staked a rapid and growing claim around studio-produced TV content online. Their ownership structure sure helps. But more than than they have an attractive and very usable site).
MySpace is blowing a golden opportunity to dominate the space. (I wonder if they know that? Wonder how Facebook feels about the issue?"
Pre-roll ads are not the answer. (Hallelujah! But reality is that short (up to 15 seconds) pre-rolls are part of the answer - longer than that is annoying.)
And the Internet may eventually produce a hit series that reaches bigger audiences than TV ever has. (Provocative upon initial read but basic logic would lead one to that conclusion. If the Internet produces an audience that is larger than TV ever was and can spend marking $'s promoting a quality title in the manner that TV has, then it will happen).

While Eisner hasn't produced that monster web original hit yet, he is able to keep costs low for his shows by "hiring more waiters than anybody." Those waiters are affordable because they are "non-union." Good to know there may be job security for waiters in this economy, albeit at non-unionized, low wages.

Additional coverage of Eisner's interview:

MediaWeek: Vuguru's Eisner Takes Shots at Hulu, MySpace at Veoh Forum
MediaPost: Eisner: Video Will Continue to Evolve Online
TVWeek: Michael Eisner: Web Video to Surpass TV
Wired Blog: Michael Eisner Calls Hulu A Nice "Middle Game"
Washington Post / paidContent.org: Eisner on Online Video and What "Works": Sex and Sarah Palin

Why I'll leave cable TV behind . . .

2008-10-09T11:01:00.000-07:00

As more and more interesting and relevant video content is available online, I gave pause to ponder why do I need to "program" my DVR and why should I wait for Netflix to show up in my mail box in order to have entertainment in my living room when I'm ready to turn off my brain and decompress? This line of thinking comes at a time when I'm also looking at the myriad of expenses I pay around the house (isn't everyone)?

I understand why online video holds much appeal - infinite library, "free" (ad-supported models), portability, ease of discovery, sharing with others, always at the ready when I"m wanting to watch (regardless of time, schedules, etc.) While I've had to "learn" the benefits of this, others (such as my 17-year-old nephew) never watch TV and wonder why anyone would. Save the exception of some live sporting events, I'm seeing the wisdom in youth.

So why not make the transition to watching all my video on a PC now? Well as much as I love my 13" MacBook, I'm on it 8-14 hours a day and can't imagine wanting to spend more time on it. I don't get wanting to watch video on it - short of perhaps long plane rides (but that's usually when I clean out email, read a book or sleep). And I will never be one to watch much video, but for short clips and highlights of my beloved Canucks and Sharks (yes I'm a professional hockey polygamist), on my iPhone (or whatever replaces it).

So when will I chuck cable and my DVR box (and the $100 per month bill along with it)? Likely when I can get my hands on a SlingCatcher. I haven't done a detailed review of its features, but James Mc Quivey got an early demo. If it works as advertised, I'll be setting up my "man-cave" complete with SlingCatcher and flat screen TV before the end of the year. My 14-year-old Sony Trinitron and DVR have served me well but must move on.

How Online Video Engages Audiences

2008-10-07T17:12:00.001-07:00

Much has been written about YouTube and there is ample hype about where online video is going. I don't get too excited about the latest dog on skateboard or Japanese student in dorm room dance sensation. Forrester Research (commissioned by Veoh Networks) recently took a systemic and fundamental look at online video and the impact it is having on consumer behavior and attitudes.

James McQuivey presented a summary of this today at an event in NYC "Watching the Web: Engaging Consumers in Online Video. See James' blog for his personal take on the subject. The full research will be available via Veoh. It answers questions such as . . .

What it means to be an engaged online video viewer
Why engaged viewers watch online video
How online video holds viewers attention
Which types of online video are more likely to engage consumers
Whether online video present advertisers with a unique medium with which to reach consumers
How viewers feel toward online video advertising
Which advertising experiences are more likely to be be accepted by viewers

Online Video is Hot

Nearly 2/3rds of those online in the U.S. watch video in a typical month (117M)
The average online video viewer watches 56 minutes a week (>100m of total viewing hours each week)
Moving beyond strictly a YouTube phenomenon - people are watching everything from animation to TV re-runs to news clips

"Our kids will take a look at us sideways when we talk about schedules for TV."

Engaged Viewers are Most Attractive

Online video is creating a market of users who are more engaged and involved with the content being viewed (pay more attention - as I check email, switch between baseball playoffs, Monday night football and a "classic" Sharks hockey game, draft a blog entry, twitter, talk to my son and listen to voice mail) and are more receptive to ads. Marketers need to understand this audience and then leverage video content to connect to their core/target audiences.

Who are Engaged Video Viewers

Forrester defined Engaged Viewers as those who watch more than an hour of online video per week.

Though they are just 36% of online viewers, they watch 74% of all video
A third of them - 36% - are between 13 and 24 years old
They spend 2.5 hours with online video a week (on average), watching 6.1 different types of video content
They pay close attention to what they are watching (vs. when watching TV)

Forrester breaks these Engaged Viewers down into more detailed groups of consumers worth understanding.

Long-Form Video Engages More

Long-form content sites not only attract desirable viewers, but also they cultivate an environment that garners more viewer attention and engagement with advertising. Some unique attributes of those who watch long-form content online:

more likely to pay full attention to the videos they watch
interact and rate the videos they watch more often
2x as likely to recall in-video ads
agree more readily that advertising helps pays for their free experience
try to replicate the TV experience by looking for things "they wish were on TV"

Implications for Content Providers

Online video growth will continue and will result in more engaged viewers. Content providers need to prepare given:

Engaged Viewers want even more content
They want it to be even easier to watch
They enjoy the convenience of watching many kinds of video on the same site

Implications for Advertisers

Advertisers need to rethink their approaches in order reach the Engaged Viewer

Think "Advertainment", not Advertisement - be creative and don't repeat the same ad over and over in the same piece of content
Use all the ad units on a page in concert to activate viewers
Use content (and sites) to target video ads

More details, including details on the make-up and composition of engaged video viewers, available Veoh Networks.

See NY Times (GigaOM) coverage, including recent research from Heavy.

Just Because You Can, Should You?

2008-10-07T09:18:00.001-07:00

Just because you are technically able to create a product, should you? Google announced a new feature called Mail Goggles in their gmail blog yesterday. It is a play on words on "Beer Goggles" (presumably) which describes a state whereby previously unattractive individuals start to look better after imbibing in a few alcoholic beverages.

So is it a good idea? Michael Arrington doesn't think so - hates math and doesn't think a few math problems will prevent him from sending that drunken email. I tend to agree. Why do people need to self-moderate? I suppose those with more impulsive and compulsive personalities and those that create irreparable damage and chaos with their emails.

Personally, I look back with some fondness and a wry smile of the early morning, post-bar "drunken dial" long distance calls I allegedly made to afar female friends. (There was a time when I actually "dialed" a phone that was tethered to the wall with a cable made of copper wiring). Even if the call necessitated a sheepish apology in the morning or the following day, I'm not sure having to do some math (which I actually enjoy) would have stopped me - hormones and liquid courage are a potent combination.

As a marketing & product guy, I'd love to see the market research and target personas that point to the immense product opportunity here. Next time make me karaoke an Irish folk song and DDR a jig and I might not only sign up for a Gmail account but also turn on Mail Goggles.

Watching the Web . . . How Online Video Engages

2008-10-06T19:39:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow in NYC, Veoh Networks will host the first in their Insight Series, "Watching the Web: Engaging Consumers in Online Video." In addition to discussions with Michael Eisner (Founder, The Tornante Company) and Dimitry Shapiro (Founder, Veoh Networks), there will be an expert panel with Albert Cheng (EVP Digital Media, Disney-ABC Television), Patrick Keane (EVP/CMO, CBS Interactive), Greg Clayman (EVP, MTV Networks), Amanda Richman (SVP, MediaVest) and Tom Morgan, (Chief Strategy Officer, Move Networks).

Joining this impressive group (with their lofty titles), will be James McQuivey of Forrester Research. Forrester was commissioned by Veoh Networks to conduct some in-depth and independent research on how online video, including long-form (TV and movies) engages audiences differently than short-form video and television.

I was fortunate enough to work on this research on behalf of Veoh - thanks to Mike Henry, Annie Morita, Edwin Wong and the rest of the team at Veoh. I will provide some summary level insights in this blog once James has had a chance to unveil Forrester's work tomorrow.

Escape to NYC & Wine 2.0

2008-10-06T19:32:00.000-07:00

Well after a long hiatus (and barely getting off the blog starting line in the first place), I'm back and more determined than ever to blog.

So here goes my restart. I authored a guest post on the Savvy Sommelier, detailing some of the interesting tech companies in the wine vertical - showcase at Wine 2.0 event in NYC last month.

Check out my interactions with iPhone Application WineSnob, San Francisco-based custom winery CrushPad, wine price search engine Snooth and more . . .

Debunking 5 Myths of Local Internet Success

2008-01-29T08:03:00.000-08:00

Despite the myriad of investments, different business models and site types, very few companies have built viable businesses. A recent study of 80 “local” Internet companies, commissioned by MerchantCircle and conducted by SmokeJumper Strategy, a consulting firm based in Silicon Valley, identified five (5) myths of local Internet success.

#1. Build It and They Will Come
Many companies start with the idea of a founder or founders to build a better mousetrap. While the germ of an idea is a necessary start, it of itself is not enough to build a company. There are plenty of examples of companies building great features but generating relatively few unique visitors or page views: CityWaboo generates less than 5k page views monthly; OnlyBusiness.com attracts under 1k unique visitors per month; and SuggestLocal has so little user activity that it doesn't register results on Compete. Even those who achieve relatively good traffic numbers aren’t destined for success: Edgeio was generating over 1.5M page views monthly when it decided to shut down; Insider Pages has over 1.8M unique visitors; and Judy’s Book still generates approximately 1.4M page views monthly (even after laying off the whole company).

#2. SEM = The Holy Grail of Traffic Generation
Many companies in local have experimented with Search Engine Marketing (SEM) as a way to drive traffic to their sites. When comparing overall page views against these companies’ search engine marketing budgets, it is clear that very few companies rely primarily on SEM for traffic generation. However, there are a handful of companies that are spending between $100k and $300k monthly on search advertising. For those companies that buy the vast majority of their website traffic (Done Right!, Outside.in and Ziffleads), the question is obvious – how sustainable are their business models? Are they able to monetize traffic at a rate that is higher than the costs incurred?

#3. Go Forth and Conquer the World
Blame it on the ambition of the big thinkers and dreamers of Silicon Valley and beyond, but many companies attempt to build a local brand nationally or even globally simultaneously. When you step back from this notion, one can see the flaw in the logic (or is it irony?) or at least the difficultly for a small start-up to accomplish this. (This myth is correlated to myth #1 “Build It and They Will Come”).

Companies such as SmallTown have fought the temptation to roll out nationally, rather starting with a focused geographic market. The result has been utility for users of the service, feedback for the company to continue to develop its tools, information and capabilities and credibility as they start to move into new markets.

There is risk, of course, in this approach. As others capture new markets they make it difficult for future entrants. Plus it may not appeal to the ego and financial desires of investors. But compare this to those who have attempted to build a site that works globally/nationally, such as CitizenBay (less than 1.5k unique visitors) or StreetAdvisor (less than 3.5k unique visitors), who have minimal traffic and little active membership. The result is “no there there” - the equivalent of throwing a really hip and cool party that no one attends.

#4. Advertising Will Pave the Road with Golden Bricks
While there is little debate that Google AdSense, Yahoo Publisher Network and other site advertising networks have enabled many small sites and bloggers to generate income from advertising on their sites, relying on advertising exclusively to build a viable business is very much in question. Our study found no local sites that are driving big revenue levels and growth rates with advertising only. For advertising to pay off, local players need significant traffic. Yet, many sites have failed to establish a revenue stream of any kind.

Sites with higher revenue levels rely on some combination of service licensing, commission or other revenue streams in addition to site advertising (display, sponsorships and pay-per-click). MerchantCircle is one example of a site that has been able to create multiple revenue streams: advertising (Citysearch, AdSense and directly-sold display ads) as well as member subscriptions.

#5. Bootstrapping: What is Old is Old Again
While some high traffic sites have had limited funding, all the low traffic sites share low funding levels (or no outside investment). So while getting your business well-funded is no guarantee of success, without funding it is very difficult to fuel the product development and marketing that is required to establish yourself and grow.

Without some funding event, many local companies are destined to continue to be niche or marginal players, will die on the vine or become acquisition fodder for others: EventShopper, Savory Cities, and Zixxo.

About the Study
The study was conducted by SmokeJumper Strategy, a Silicon Valley-based marketing and product consulting firm, and was commissioned by MerchantCircle. 80 companies were assessed using publicly available information from Alexa, Compete, Google, SpyFu and Xinureturns. For more information, contact SmokeJumper Strategy.